Time Series Archives

Apr 12 by Eric Posted in Machine learning, Time Series

Predicting The Output Gap With Machine Learning Regression Models

In today’s blog, we compare three different machine learning regression techniques for predicting U.S. real GDP output gap. We will use a combination of common economic indicators and GDP subcomponents to predict the quarterly GDP output gap.

Dec 15 by Eric Posted in Best Practices, Programming, Time Series

Importing FRED Data to GAUSS

The GAUSS FRED database integration, introduced in GAUSS 23, is a time-saving feature that allows you to import FRED data directly into GAUSS. This means you have thousands of datasets at your fingertips without ever leaving GAUSS. These tools also ensure that FRED data is imported directly into a GAUSS dataframe format, which can eliminate hours of data cleaning and the headaches that come with it. In today’s blog, we will learn how to use the FRED import tools to:

Search for a FRED data series.
Import FRED data to GAUSS, including merging multiple series.
Use advanced import tools to perform data transformations.

Sep 14 by Jamel Posted in Econometrics, Time Series

Addressing Conditional Heteroscedasticity in SVAR Models

Structural VAR models are powerful tools in macroeconomic time series modeling. However, given their vast applications, it is important that they are properly implemented to address the characteristics of their underlying data. In today’s blog, we build on our previous discussions of SVAR models to examine the use of SVAR in the special case of conditional heteroscedasticity. We will look more closely at:

Conditional heteroscedasticity.
The impacts of conditional heteroscedasticity on SVAR models.
Estimating structural impulse response functions (SIRF) in the presence of conditional heteroscedasticity.
An application to the global oil market.

Sep 05 by Eric Posted in Econometrics, Time Series

Unobserved Components Models; The Local Level Model

In today’s blog, we explore a simple but powerful member of the unobserved components family – the local level model. This model provides a straightforward method for understanding the dynamics of time series data. This blog will examine:

Time series decomposition.
Unobserved components and the local level model.
Understanding the estimated results for a local level model.

Aug 03 by Eric Posted in Econometrics, Time Series

Understanding State-Space Models (An Inflation Example)

State-space models provide a powerful environment for modeling dynamic systems. Their flexibility has resulted in a wide variety of applications across fields including radar tracking, 3-D modeling, monetary policy modeling, weather forecasting, and more. In this blog, we look more closely at state-space modeling using a simple time series model of inflation. We cover:

The components of state-space models.
Representing state-space models in GAUSS.
Estimating model parameters using state-space models.

Jul 17 by Eric Posted in Releases, Time Series

Time Series MT 3.1.1 Update

Introduction The GAUSS TSMT application module provides a comprehensive suite of tools for MLE and state-space estimation, model diagnostics, and forecasting of univariate, multivariate, and nonlinear time series models. The latest Time Series MT (TSMT) 3.1. is now available. If you own TSMT 3.0 the update is available for free. Installation The TSMT update requires [...]

May 16 by Eric Posted in Econometrics, Time Series

Getting Started with Time Series in GAUSS

In this video, you’ll learn the basics of time series analysis in GAUSS. See how quick and easy it is to get started with everything from data loading to ARIMA analysis! You’ll see first hand how to :

Load and verify time series data.
Filter observations by date.
Merge data from different sources.
Create basic time series plots.
Perform stationarity testing.
Fit a basic ARIMA model.

Oct 21 by Eric Posted in Econometrics, Time Series

The Quantile Autoregressive-Distributed Lag Parameter Estimation and Interpretation in GAUSS

The QARDL model has grown increasingly popular in time series analysis. It is a convenient model for addressing autocorrelation, disentangling long-term and short-term relationships, and addressing asymmetric relationships. In today’s blog, we look at the basics of the QARDL model including:

The intuition behind the QARDL model.
How to estimate the QARDL model in GAUSS.
How to interpret the QARDL results.

Sep 29 by Eric Posted in Econometrics, Time Series

The Structural VAR Model at Work: Analyzing Monetary Policy

In today’s blog, we put the building blocks of the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to work in a practical application. We’ll use one of the most common applications of SVAR models, monetary policy analysis, to see the SVAR in action. After this blog, you should have a stronger understanding of:

How to use Granger causality testing to inform model selection.
How to implement short-run identification restrictions.
How to conduct and interpret structural VAR analysis.

Tagged in SVAR

Sep 24 by Eric Posted in Econometrics, Time Series, Video

How to Run the Fourier LM Test (Video)

Learn everything you need to know to run the Fourier LM unit root test with your data and interpret the results.

Tagged in structural breaks, unit root

Category: Time Series