Cointegration is an important tool for modeling the long-run relationships in time series data. If you work with time series data, you will likely find yourself needing to use cointegration at some point. This blog provides an in-depth introduction to cointegration and will cover all the nuts and bolts you need to get started.

Introduction In time series modeling we often encounter trending or nonstationary time series data. Understanding the characteristics of such data is crucial for developing proper time series models. For this reason, unit root testing is an essential step when dealing with time series data. In this blog post, we cover everything you need to conduct [...]

The statistical characteristics of time series data often violate the assumptions of conventional statistical methods. Because of this, analyzing time series data requires a unique set of tools and methods, collectively known as time series analysis. This article covers the fundamental concepts of time series analysis and should give you a foundation for working with time series data. Everything is covered from time series plotting to time series modeling.

The preliminary econometric package for Time Series and Panel Data Methods has been updated and functionality has been expanded in this first official release of tspdlib 1.0. The tspdlib 1.0 package includes functions for time series unit root tests in the presence of structural breaks, time series and panel data unit root tests in the [...]

Introduction In this blog, we examine the issue of identifying unit roots in the presence of structural breaks. We will use the quarterly US current account to GDP ratio to compare results from a number of unit root test found in the GAUSS tspdlib library including the: Zivot-Andrews (1992) unit root test with a single [...]

Introduction Permutation Entropy (PE) is a robust time series tool which provides a quantification measure of the complexity of a dynamic system by capturing the order relations between values of a time series and extracting a probability distribution of the ordinal patterns (see Henry and Judge, 2019). Among its main features, the PE approach: Is [...]

Though many standard econometric models assume that variance is constant, structural breaks in variance are well-documented, particularly in economic and finance data. If these changes are not accurately accounted for, they can hinder forecast inference measures, such as forecast variances and intervals. In this blog, we consider a tool that can be used to help locate structural breaks in variance — the iterative cumulative sum of squares algorithm(ICSS) (Inclan and Tiao, 1994).

Introduction Last week we learned how to use the date keyword to load dates into GAUSS. Today, we will plot some high-frequency Forex data. The data Today's dataset (usdcad_tick.csv) contains tick data for a little over 30,000 observations of the bid price for the USD/CAD currency pair from January 2, 2018. This file has two [...]

Introduction Time series data with inconsistently formatted dates and times can make your work frustrating. Dates and times are often stored as strings or text data and converting to a consistent, numeric format might seem like a daunting task. Fortunately, GAUSS includes an easy tool for loading and converting dates and times – the date [...]

Introduction The key to getting the most performance from a matrix language is to vectorize your code as much as possible. Vectorized code performs operations on large sections of matrices and vectors in a single operation, rather than looping over the elements one-by-one. For example, we could scale a vector by looping over each element: [...]